Conscription and Military Service: Do They Result in Future Violent and Nonviolent Incarcerations and Recidivism?
Abstract: Employing nonparametric bounds, we examine the effect of military service on incarceration outcomes using the Vietnam draft lotteries as a possibly invalid instrumental variable for military service. The draft is allowed to have a direct effect on the outcomes independently of military service, disposing of the exclusion restriction. We find: (i) suggestive but not strong statistical evidence that the direct effect of the draft increases the incarceration rate for violent offenses for a particular cohort of draft avoiders, and (ii) military service increases the incarceration rate for violent and nonviolent crimes of white volunteers and veterans in certain birth cohorts.
Abstract: Objectives: Increasing numbers of older adults are reentering community following incarceration (i.e., reentry), yet risk of incident neurodegenerative disorders associated with reentry is unknown. Our objective was to determine association between reentry status (reentry vs never-incarcerated) and mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and/or dementia. Methods: This nationwide, longitudinal cohort study used linked Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services and Veterans Health Administration data. Participants were aged 65 years or older who experienced reentry between October 1, 2012, and December 31, 2018, with no preincarceration MCI/dementia, compared with age-matched/sex-matched never-incarcerated veterans. MCI/dementia was defined by diagnostic codes. Fine-Gray proportional hazards models were used to examine association. Results: This study included 35,520 veterans, mean age of 70 years, and approximately 1% women. The reentry group (N = 5,920) had higher incidence of MCI/dementia compared with the never-incarcerated group (N = 29,600; 10.2% vs 7.2%; fully adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.12; 95% CI 1.00-1.25). On further investigation, reentry was associated with increased risk of dementia with or without prior MCI diagnosis (aHR 1.21; 95% CI 1.06-1.39) but not MCI only. Discussion: Transition from incarceration to community increased risk of neurocognitive diagnosis. Findings indicate health/social services to identify and address significant cognitive deficits on late-life reentry. Limitations include generalizability to nonveterans.